As the city gears up to welcome new Members of Parliament, we take a peek at the statistics and poll predictions to see how has Bangalore voted in the past, and who might win the race in Bangalore this time. Our focus is on the three urban constituencies – Bangalore South, North and Central.

2009 – the honeymoon effect

In 2009, the state was being governed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the scams hadn’t hit the government yet. Bangalore’s 28 constituencies had 18 BJP MLAs. The sense of euphoria and what the experts call “the honeymoon effect” swept Bangalore during the 2009 Parliamentary elections, with all its MPs being elected from BJP itself.

In the 2013 assembly elections, the situation turned around. The scam-hit BJP government was shown the door by voters in Karnataka. But Bangalore elected 13 Congress MLAs and 12 BJP MLAs, while JD(S) got three MLAs.

However, if one looks at the party-wise vote share for all constituencies and rearranges it by Parliamentary constituencies, it is clear that 2009 vote share had been reversed in 2013, with Congress getting maximum vote share, though all votes did not translate into seats.

Voting pattern – some observations

Number of polled votes increased in 2013, while the number of voters itself reduced in some constituencies in 2013. However, the voter turnout was the highest in 2013 election. It dropped slightly in 2014 elections.

Still there have been missing voters, dead voters, infants, those who moved out etc intact in the voter list, adding to the voters numbers. This has caused the voting percentage to be shown as lesser than the other areas, while the reality might be different.

It’s Nandan v/s Modi in Bangalore South

BJP in Bangalore South had scored 437,953 votes in 2009 elections, while it dropped to 354,860 votes in 2013. However, the votes lost by BJP did not go to Congress – instead the votes for ‘others’ increased. If the ‘Modi wave’ is capable of reversing those votes which went to others, BJP is sure to win Bangalore South.

However, Nandan Nilekani’s background and influence, and the negative feeling among some sectors about Ananth Kumar’s performance as an MP in the state cannot be ignored. Another factor that decides the winner will be the votes that AAP can garner.

Where candidate’s image matters

In Bangalore North,  BJP who got 452,920 votes in 2009 was down to 299,356 votes in 2013. At the same time, Congress got a huge share of votes – 528,660, up from 393,255. Others, namely JD(S), also got a good chunk of votes – up from 155,482 to 476,004. Though Congress garnered wide support, the vote share of ‘others’ couldn’t be ignored.

This time, the number of voters has increased in Bangalore North, while the voter turnout is almost at the same percentage level. The key factors that decide the winner here would again be the ‘Modi wave’ if any, and the relatively clean image of Sadananda Gowda and his performance as the chief minister. Narayana Swamy’s hardworking image has the capacity to work in favour of Congress. AAP might manage to get some voteshare, but it may not be substantial.

AAP matters here

Bangalore Central in 2013 showed a trend for Congress. This time however, the votes that AAP candidate, Balakrishnan gets, will be crucial deciding factor, as there aren’t many specific factors that can work in favour of either BJP or Congress. The preferences of new voters will be another factor.

Exit poll predicts BJP in two seats

An exit poll by CopsResearch, a Bangalore-based research firm, has predicted that Bangalore North and South will be won by BJP, while the Central will go to Congress.

Here is what the exit poll analysis by Dr G K Karanth, research analyst, finds in addition: “The BJP in general and Modi in particular seem to have raised the level of people’s expectation to an unimaginable height. About 70 percent of the people said their level of expectation about Modi’s performance is seven on a scale of 10, while 10 percent of the voters said their level of expectation about Modi’s performance is about 4 on a scale of 10. Remaining 15 percent said they are aware of the difficulties Modi would face in running the affairs of the country, and hence their expectation quotient is only 5 out of 10, though they fondly hope that he would deliver. About five per cent of the voters did not want to answer.”

The exit poll by CopsResearch also asked people about the performance of the state government. “About 59 per cent of the voters expressed satisfaction over the performance of the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government, while 31 per cent expressed their disappointment,” says the website.

This exit poll has selected four booths each randomly in every assembly segment, and has surveyed 100 voters in each booth. There have not been any particular predictions for Bangalore by any other exit poll.

Who will win in Bangalore this time?

Broadly, if the same trends as that of 2013 have continued in Bangalore, it is possible that Congress can win all the three seats. However, this may not happen if: 1) Bangaloreans are influenced by the ‘Modi wave’  and 2) If the citizens want to show their frustration on the pothole and garbage crisis in the city by voting against the state government. Most people don’t differentiate between the duties of the BBMP and the state government.

The third alternative is capable of playing spoilsport, though there may not be any seats won this time. JD(S) did field candidates like Nandini Alva and Ruth Manorama who have a good image, but it is not clear if their charm or record has managed to attract mass voters.

Aam Aadmi Party too is in the same situation. It is tough to predict the votes AAP can garner, as it is a new party with no baggage to carry in Karnataka. Furthermore, AAP has a DNA in New Delhi from its own mass base, where it managed to make unknown people vote for them to win in the MLA elections there earlier. Whether that DNA transferred to Bangalore or not during this MP elections is going to be a factor, and the results will tell.

The suspense will end tomorrow. Till then, let’s keep guessing!

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